Strategy development in the Age of Disruption
By Kumardev Chatterjee, Serial Tech Innovator, Entrepreneur and Expert
Even before the COVID-19 pandemic hit the world, many analysts of past, present and future developments have already labelled the current times as the Age of Disruption. With unprecedented technological change taking place — for example in the domains of automation, artificial intelligence, genomics and nanotechnology, many aspects of our society — from health issues to competitiveness, from addressing climate change to demographic changes, will no doubt be affected too. Consequently, the role government wants to have vis-à-vis these changes and the way it functions itself, will also be subject to analysis and change. In his article, Kumardev Chatterjee, working with deep tech and a serial innovator and entrepreneur, zooms in on the decade of technological disruption 2021–2030: how we got here, what this will be and how to prepare and make use of it, in particular by the public sector.
2010–2020 — round-up of key disruptions and their Impact for this decade
The decade 2010 to 2020 can be firmly labelled as the decade of digital disruption and transformation. This decade went from the debut of the Apple iPad in 2010 that ushered in an entirely new dimension of ‘personal’ computing to the early adoption of 5G as the fastest growing mobile technology in history estimated to cover over 1 billion people i.e. 15 % of the global population by the end of 2020.
The firmest indicators of it all is the digital transformation of the global economy. At the eve of the past decade, in March 2009, the month in which the S&P 500 finally bottomed-out after the financial crisis that almost destroyed the eurozone, Technology stocks combined made up just 18 % of the index, while in March 2020, Technology stocks stood at a whopping 30.3 % of the index.
Key technology adoption milestones in this decade of disruption and transformation that have paved the way for the future included: mainstream usage of voice based virtual assistants (Siri, Alexa, Google and others); smartwatches (Pebble, followed by Apple, Samsung and others); AR/ VR (Augmented Reality/Virtual Reality: Oculus, HTC, Microsoft and others); electric vehicles (Tesla, Chevrolet, BMW and others) and personal mobility devices (e-scooters, hoverboards, unicycles and others).
Societal change is the fundamental bedrock of any global paradigm shift of this scale. The deep changes in how society functioned over the decade is well represented by this comparison: in 2010, Exxon Mobil was at the top of the S&P 500 and in 2020, it was not even in the top 10, with the top 5 being entirely Technology companies. There were no energy companies at all in the top 10, while Tesla debuted in 2020 and is currently at 7th position. The other dominant societal trend that keenly captured this decade of digital disruption and transformation is the rise of the data economy and its underpinning of the digital gig economy, which, in the US alone, is expanding three times faster than the US workforce as a whole.
Perhaps the greatest impact of the 2010s for this decade was the rise of what were collectively termed as Frontier / Emerging Technologies: 3D printing, Electric Vehicles, XR, Omics, Artificial Intelligence; Autonomous / semi-autonomous / self-managing / self-driving robots, drones, cars; Distributed ledge (blockchain) based technology universe i.e. popularly known as crypto; plant-based / in-vitro meat, and quantum computing.
All of these developments have prepared the ground for even more significant disruption in this decade.
The Gigatrends of 2021–2030
Hindsight is 2020. What about foresight? Let’s look-ahead for this decade. There is little doubt that this will be a decade of technological, economic and societal change unlike anything since the end of the Cold War or even that seminal year of massive global change, 1968.
There are several mega or what I would call Gigatrends that are fuelling and rocketing this change.
Post-Pandemic Society
The lockdowns have fundamentally affected many aspects of life, some for the worse: forced separation from loved-ones, sometimes tragically during their last period and moments; reduced economic prospects for individuals and businesses alike; declining mental health and fragmentation of societal cohesion, amongst others.
However there have undoubtedly been improvements too — history beating record scientific and medical advancements to deal with the virus, creating vaccines from scratch in less than a year, more quality time with loved-ones, massive reductions in pollution, and most importantly, accelerated use of digital technologies to work, shop, learn, socialise and create value, from which there is no going back.
Terms like WFH (working from home), Zoom, Covideoparty have become the norm but it is the technologies that underpin them that will define the 2020s. It is now broadly accepted that workers in a lot of the white-collar industries can be just as productive working from home as from the former ‘office.’ Sometimes, even more than before, due to lack of distractions, noise, the ability to work at hours that are more productive for an individual, breaks when needed and the ability to be as casual in dressing as one would like (within limits). Many workers particularly appreciate the efficiency gained and removal of frustrations derived from absence of the daily commute, a benefit in productivity that is then passed on to their companies.
The key trends that emerge from this Gigatrend are the acceleration of:
- homeworking technologies (including cybersecurity and privacy);
- automation of workflows;
- digitalisation of experiences (including XR, Digital Twins, Holograms);
- AI; and
- high-speed communications.
Autonomous Economy
The 2010s laid the groundwork for the advent of the Autonomous Economy. Artificial Intelligence is enabling robots and drones to become more are more autonomous, to the extent that they can work on complex tasks collaboratively as teams just as humans do.
Advanced war machines such as fighter jets are becoming increasingly autonomous, as are the fundamental machines and operations at the heart of global supply chains from trucks to ships to warehouses. Even healthcare is beginning to be transformed with robot doctors.
This autonomy change we can also see in the domain of personal powered transport and mass rapid transport with technologies like Hyperloop (effectively travelling at speed in a vacuum using magnetic levitation), Flying Cars, Jet Packs and Air Taxis and rapidly moving towards commercial operations. While their use is not commonplace yet, the technology is there and it is a matter of time (and regulation) before they will become more widespread. Cue the opening of the world’s first airport for flying cars and drones this year.
Finally, AI, Autonomy and high-speed communications is driving more space technology and its applications. This will add an additional dimension to the Autonomous Economy both in terms of pervasive high-speed connectivity for large-scale data-heavy and universal IIoT (Industrial Internet of Things), autonomous robots and vehicle communications as well as applications that exploit the wealth of data that continues to be generated, consumed, processed and traded amongst machines.
The role of the autonomous economy and the technologies they embrace will define the course of the 2020s as I mentioned in this article: ’5G, AI and Machine Learning are not just impacting innovation today; they are at the core of innovation in the upcoming Autonomous Economy. Autonomy is the one thing that will tie it all in, as we make this transition, to enable Intelligent Autonomous Systems in various industries, over 5G networks.’
The Autonomous Economy is key to fighting climate change and many of the technologies used to power the autonomous economy will have a direct effect on managing climate change, from reduction of emissions to sustainable reuse. The Autonomous Economy will fundamentally change not only the way the world works, but also how we perceive it and how we interact with it as individuals and societies.
The key trends that emerge from this Gigatrend are the acceleration of:
- smart and inclusive cities;
- industry 4.0;
- autonomous robot workforces;
- autonomous personal and mass zero-emissions mobility;
- AI supported workflows;
- real-time natural language processing;
- quantum computing;
- high-speed communications;
- cybersecurity;
- 3D printing; and
- space tech (communications, Small Satellites, Artificial Habitats, Robotics).
Individual de-materialisation
The trend towards individuals de-materialising their lifestyles and making choices that support this approach is only increasing, and not just among the younger generations. The overriding trend is to not to accumulate objects / physical assets, and instead focus on experiences and digital symbols.
The drive is to reduce one’s own carbon-footprint, and invest in experiences over things and access over ownership leading to the rise of experience and access economy over more traditional pillars of society such as generational house ownership and sustainable pension pots.
The very concept of what constitutes success has started to change dramatically, particularly for millennials — success is no longer about how financial prosperity but freedom of movement and ability to immerse and experience the world, offline and online and have a heathy, personalised, sustainable lifestyle where choices of everyday matters from food to transport to consumption are carefully balanced.
The net effect of this will be the use of a range of new and cutting-edge frontier / emerging technologies, that today are at the edge of commercialisation and mass adoption alongside existing and growing trends to build a more inclusive, sustainable green economy — with focus on climate change, energy, agriculture and sustainable reuse.
The key trends that emerge from this Gigatrend are the acceleration of:
- renewable energy (including new sources and methods);
- sustainable manufacturing and recycling;
- biotechnology for sustainable farming (including vertical farming);
- distributed ledger technology and applications;
- plant-based / invitro meat and artificial proteins;
- digital assets (Non-Fungible Tokens or NFTs that represent digital assets like digital art pieces or even events);
- electric vehicles;
- battery technology (including hydrogen and fuel-cells); and personalised health (Omics, Exoskeletons).
The state and pace of change
The state and pace of such technologically driven economic and societal change is fast and furious. A simple look at the 2010 decade is an ample indicator of this hard truth. In this video is what I predicted clearly a lot of it has been achieved / started to be achieved.
Time and Technology wait for no one, AI bots included. Indeed, some forecast experts expect that, while the ‘global digital transformation market was valued at USD 998.99 billion in 2020, it will reach a value of USD 2744.68 billion by 2026, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 18.5 % over 2021–2026. (
There are fears that the net effect of these trends, and particularly AI, 5G and the Autonomous economy, will lead to large-scale job-losses. However, it is more than likely that by 2030, AI will lead to an estimated USD15.7 trillion, or 26 % increase, in global GDP. In other words, AI will create more jobs than it destroys and that will be a lasting benefit for all.
The challenge for public policy and regulations
The increasing complexity of the policy making landscape is evident from the above. The diversification and at the same time increase in complexity of technologies, trends and both their manifestation at the societal level and direct impact on individuals, families and communities makes policy making fraught with concerns of how to achieve stated goals in a fair and balanced way that holds up to scrutiny. Policy makers need to decode both the impact and the trajectory of these technologies and trends on their core constituents. Merely comprehending the bits and bytes, nuts and bolts is simply not enough.
Furthermore, merely understanding these aspects is only part of the tasks before policy makers. They need to also grapple with the topics that are ‘’side-effects’ but serious in their import, for e.g. Ethics in AI, Human Factors in Autonomous Vehicles, Environmental and Energy concerns around distributed ledger applications and societal concerns around genetic engineering (lab-created embryos, designer babies, super humans), to name just a few.
Yes, specialist and experience knowledge is required, but the question is how and in which format? The World Economic Forum takes a straightforward approach to this matter and has for years its carefully selected (from nominations from existing members) and well-curated formal Expert forum on a wide range of topics (of which I have had the privilege of being a member for almost a decade now), and global agenda council. Through this the Forum provides cutting-edge data, insights and expert advice making its outputs (free to the world) both highly regarded and useful for action taking. The OECD takes a similar approach to manage ever-changing complexity with specifically constituted expert forums per topic. The essential aspect of these approaches is that experts are not-invited post-facto to ‘analyse the impact’ of policies, but proactively, to help inform, shape and adjust approaches during the whole policy-making lifecycle.
Recommendations for public policy makers
Building on insights I obtained from working more than two decades as entrepreneur in technology and innovation, and my policy making support experience at the national (UK, Belgium) EU (Commission, Parliament) and global (US, World Economic Forum) levels, I arrive at three key recommendations for policy makers:
• consider the impact on the whole (Individual + Economy + Society) of policy framing, and not just on the specific stated goal / objective of the policy to the exclusion of everything else;
• use disruptive thinking and approaches that are not the norm. An example of this relates to the following. The collaborative economy (also called ‘sharing’ economy) is set to be almost USD335 billion by 2025. This entire sector was nowhere in the mind-space of policy-makers, economist-modellers and regulators / officials. In fact, many did their best to talk it down and block it at every turn. Yet, here we are with even the European Parliament making to clear that more needs to be done to enable it, not disable it;
• as mentioned above, specific and detailed expertise as foundation for policy making, not just ad hoc but through the policy-making lifecycle, is key to ensuring currency, relevance and impact.
The role that public auditors can have here is crucial to say the least. As guardians of the public purse when it comes to ensuring that public spending, especially on policy making and implementation that meets the stated goals and objectives, they have a substantive role to play. This is even more important earlier in the lifecycle, and public auditors should play a more active role to support the policy-making process, by holding up a mirror on how previous policies have failed and how progress — or the lack of it, reconciles with the objectives set, also for further in the future. They should go even further, ensuring an audit of the policy-making process itself when it is in situ, so assessing the governance structure and process as such, to ensure close alignment with the broader governance goals set by legislators/leaders, besides the fine-grained lines in policy documents that ultimately create laws and regulations.
Benefits for the whole rather than the few
Strategy development in the age of disruption starts with a good understanding of how we arrived here at the start of this decade on the shoulders of disruptive technologies, business models, economic trends and societal changes in the 2010s. Policymakers and their ecosystem need to then grasp the complexities, interweaving and impact on society, individuals and communities of the upcoming Gigatrends of 2021–2030, which taken together will be profound.
Finally and crucially, they need a mind-set that is open to novelty and disruptive approaches to policy-making, which look to maximise the benefit for the whole rather than the few. Public auditors have a crucial role to play throughout the policy-making lifecycle to ensure that policy-implementation follows suit, not only regarding the details set, but in line with the overarching societal goals to enhance Europe’s performance when it comes to sustainability, security and prosperity.
